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Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29631/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. A large western portion of the filament appears to deflect south/southeast, which is likely associated with this event. Dimming is visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 shortly after the filament lifts-off and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z, which also likely stems from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-20T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-03-17 10:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 460km/s
Longitude (deg): 24S
Latitude (deg): 15W
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 78.98 hour(s)
Difference: 7.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-03-17T18:51Z

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